Towards de-risking Uganda amid oil hopes and enduring vulnerabilities

    Iyoha FA | Newsletter | Jul 16, 2026    
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Uganda is at a critical moment as the country stands on the cusp of becoming an oil producer. The first commercial production is expected around 2027, and the government has revealed an ambitious plan to grow the economy from around US$68 billion presently, to US$500 billion by 2040. Investors will be enthused with the headline data, with GDP growth projected to hover between 6.5 percent and 7.0 percent in the short term, with exports rising, and with surplus the balance of payments. However, a closer look reveals an economy balancing on a precarious tightrope as significant risks, which investors must price in and which policymakers urgently need to address, pervade key sectors.

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