Nigeria's headline numbers have rarely looked better. Growth held at over 3.9 percent in 2025 on the back of services, fintech, oil output recovery and modest FX reforms. Foreign reserves exceed US$50 billion and the naira has stabilised. President Tinubu's reform programme, however brutal in its early execution, is producing the macroeconomic outcomes the IMF and World Bank long prescribed. But the number of Nigerians in poverty has risen to an estimated 139 million in 2025, up roughly 61 per cent since Tinubu took office in 2023. This single statistic perforates the optimism.