This week’s MPC meeting is shaping up to be the most consequential since the monetary policy reset of February 2024. Inflation remains mildly elevated, the naira is only just finding its footing, and liquidity tightening is beginning to squeeze credit markets. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) now faces a critical dilemma: maintain aggressive tightening to cement the deceleration in inflation or pivot cautiously to avoid choking an already fragile recovery.