For decades, Nigeria’s sovereignty has persisted more as a theoretical construct than as an operative reality, independent in flag but dependent in policy, shaped by external prescriptions from London, Washington, and Bretton Woods institutions that prize compliance over true progress. However, in the last two years, beneath public frustration and global scepticism, the Tinubu administration seemed to have adopted a new posture to redefine sovereignty through economic realism rather than foreign approval. Still, sovereignty cannot be measured by bold policy announcements alone. The deeper question remains: what do his reforms mean for ordinary Nigerians?

The removal of fuel subsidy in May 2023 was the first unmistakable signal of the new government posture. For decades, fuel subsidy consumed trillions of naira while largely benefiting smugglers, fuel cartels, and the political elite. President Tinubu’s abrupt removal, made without IMF coercion, was presented as a sovereign decision. The World Bank later praised it as necessary for fiscal consolidation, noting that subsidy savings could reach ₦7 trillion annually. However, subsidy removal without shock absorbers deepened the economic pain and suffering of the citizens. Inflation climbed above 28% in 2023, with food inflation exceeding 33%, pushing an estimated 24 million Nigerians into poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).