The Albertine paradox: Uganda’s oily gamble and the reality of an ambition

    Iyoha FA | Newsletter | May 21, 2026    
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As Uganda edges towards first oil in late 2026 or 2027, the country stands at a crossroads familiar to many resource-rich developing nations. Few economic transformations have been as long-anticipated, or as fiercely contested, as the commercialization of the East African Country’s oil. And decades after TotalEnergies and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) led projects that culminated in the discovery of oil in the Albertine Graben, Kampala eagerly awaits the realisation of a long-held ambition of becoming an oil state. Linked by the 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) to Tanzania’s Tanga port, the projects have gulped over US$6 billion in construction costs. Proponents promise GDP growth spikes to double digits, thousands of jobs, infrastructure, and potential annual fiscal windfall to peak at nearly US$2 billion. 

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