The season of budget speeches has begun, and Nigeria's governors are outdoing one another in a contest of trillion-naira ambition. Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Oyo and several others have now laid their 2026 spending plans before their Houses of Assembly. On paper, these blueprints promise roads, classrooms, clinics and "shared prosperity". The harder question is whether they add up to a credible pathway to growth, welfare and inclusion—or merely another round of optimistic arithmetic. What is striking this year is not just the size of the numbers but the pattern. Across leading states, we see bigger envelopes, often 20-30% above last year, a visible tilt towards capital spending and human capital investment in education, health and infrastructure, yet persistently fragile financing marked by heavy dependence on FAAC, rising wage bills and debt service, alongside historically weak budget implementation.