Nigeria's hidden energy crisis: Why gas flows abroad while factories run on expensive diesel

    Oluyemi Adeosun | Insights | Feb 18, 2026    
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The diesel market, which is the lifeblood of industrial activity and power generation for most businesses not connected to the grid, shows consumption running at 37 percent above the official benchmark according to the NMDPRA January 2026 fact sheet. This suggests either that the benchmark is outdated and needs revision, or that economic activity, particularly in manufacturing and logistics, is stronger than headline GDP figures might indicate. The average domestic supply of 10.9 million litres daily from local refining, combined with whatever imports are flowing in, appears sufficient to meet this demand, but the pricing dynamics are not captured in the fact sheet. For businesses operating diesel-dependent generators, the critical question is whether local refining of diesel has stabilized prices or merely shifted the source of volatility. The aviation fuel consumption of 3.5 million litres daily against a 3 million litre benchmark indicates robust air travel activity, which should be good news for an economy trying to rebound, but it also raises questions about why aviation fuel prices remain high enough to keep airfares out of reach for many Nigerians. The interconnectedness of these markets means that policy decisions in one area inevitably ripple through the others, and the NMDPRA data suggests that we are still managing these interconnections reactively rather than strategically.

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