Nigeria enters the run-up to 2026 at a delicate moment. This is not a story of dramatic resurgence, nor one of inevitable decline. It is, instead, a story of balance — of an economy walking a narrow ridge between stabilisation and stagnation. The choices being made now, and over the next 12 to 18 months, will determine whether 2026 becomes the year Nigeria finally converts painful reforms into tangible progress, or whether it slips into a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation. Looking back over the past two years gives us a clear sense of both the opportunities and the risks ahead.