January’s disinflation surprise: Why policy space Is finally opening, what Nigeria should do next

    Oluyemi Adeosun | Insights | Feb 18, 2026    
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January’s inflation data did something Nigeria hasn’t seen in a while: it offered relief that feels measurable, not theoretical. Headline inflation eased slightly on a year-on-year basis to 15.10% from 15.15% in December, but the bigger story is the sudden drop on a month-on-month basis, from 0.54% to -2.88%. Food inflation cooled more sharply, with year-on-year food inflation slowing to 8.89% from 10.84%, and month-on-month food prices falling to -6.02% from -0.36%. Core inflation also moderated to 17.72% year-on-year from 18.63%, and turned negative month-on-month at -1.69% from 0.58%. In plain terms, disinflation is no longer a single-story narrative about food; it is beginning to look broad-based, and that matters for policy credibility and household welfare.

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