Borrowing without transformation: Nigeria’s debt–productivity paradox

    Chiwuike Uba | Insights | Feb 24, 2026    
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Nigeria’s fiscal landscape between 2020 and 2025 presents a stark and sobering paradox. Public borrowing surged at both federal and subnational levels, yet the corresponding productivity and developmental outcomes remain uneven, inconsistent, and in many cases deeply disappointing. Across the 36 states, the Federal Capital Territory, and the federal government of Nigeria, debt accumulation became a central instrument of fiscal strategy. However, its effectiveness in generating sustainable economic growth, infrastructure expansion, and social development varied significantly across regions. This five-year period exposes the fundamental tension inherent in public finance management: the need to finance urgent infrastructure and developmental priorities while safeguarding fiscal sustainability, macroeconomic stability, and prudent resource allocation. Nigeria’s experience during this period reinforces a critical lesson: debt alone cannot substitute for strategic governance, robust planning, transparent monitoring, or targeted investment.

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