As Nigeria closes out the first half of 2025, the economic outlook is a mix of optimism, uncertainty, and a deepening sense of déjà vu. Macro-stability has returned in part due to bold reforms — subsidy removal, FX convergence, and tighter monetary policy — but the dividends of these actions remain unequally distributed and structurally fragile. The country stands at a complex inflection point where the momentum of reform risks being stalled by the inertia of politics, bureaucracy, and shallow implementation.